A year ago, the Los Angeles Dodgers hosted in the postseason a National League West foe they had crushed all season, a Wild Card entrant who won 22 fewer games. All of that meant little to the San Diego Padres, who ousted the Dodgers in four games in the National League Division Series. So it is unlikely the 100-win Dodgers will take these coming games with the 84-win Diamondbacks lightly.
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This version of the Dodgers does not exactly resemble the juggernauts of recent vintage. The pitching staff lacks starters who can last deep into games. Clayton Kershaw will take the baseball in Game 1 despite battling shoulder trouble all season — although he still posted a 2.46 ERA. The group of pitchers behind him will include rookie Bobby Miller, veteran Lance Lynn and a whole host of openers, bulk guys and other various relievers. The team will need Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman to spark the offense to offset the run-prevention uncertainty.
When things click for the Diamondbacks, as they did in a two-game, first-round sweep of Milwaukee, the results can be invigorating. Corbin Carroll is a delight to behold on the bases and a nightmare to try to stop. Christian Walker is an underrated slugger with excellent numbers against Kershaw. Merrill Kelly will be lined up for Game 1. The Dodgers cannot look past Arizona. They saw how that can backfire only last year. — Andy McCullough
Game times
Game 1: Diamondbacks at Dodgers, Saturday, Oct. 7, 9:20 p.m. ET, TBS
Game 2: Diamondbacks at Dodgers, Monday, Oct. 9, 9:07 p.m. ET, TBS
Game 3: Dodgers at Diamondbacks, Wednesday, Oct. 11, 9:07 p.m. ET, TBS
Game 4: Dodgers at Diamondbacks, Thursday, Oct. 12, 9:07 p.m. ET, TBS (if necessary)
Game 5: Diamondbacks at Dodgers, Saturday, Oct. 14, 9:20 p.m. ET, TBS (if necessary)
Tale of the Tape
Who has the edge?
| Teams | R/G | SP ERA | RP ERA | DRS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
4.60 (14th) | 4.67 (21st) | 4.22 (18th) | 46 (4th) | |
5.59 (2nd) | 4.57 (20th) | 3.42 (3rd) | 60 (3rd) |
Dodgers top performers
| Player | POS | KEY STATISTICS | WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Lineup | RF/2B | 39 HR, 14 SB, .416 wOBA | 8.3 | |
Rotation | LHP | 2.46 ERA, 89.3 LOB % | 2.3 | |
Bullpen | RHP | 1.24 ERA, 63.8 GB% | 1.3 | |
Fielding | C | 12 DRS | 4.4 |
Diamondbacks top performers
| Player | POS | KEY STATISTICS | WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Lineup | OF | 25 HR, 54 SB, 134 OPS+ | 6.0 | |
Rotation | RHP | 3.47 ERA, 0.94 HR/9 | 5.2 | |
Bullpen | RHP | 2.48 ERA, 50.3 GB% | 1.3 | |
Fielding | C | 20 DRS | 1.7 |
Pitching matchups
Clayton Kershaw has a mercurial record in the postseason. Which version of him will show up this year? (Harry How / Getty Images)There’s no reason to look at the full-year stats for this matchup — neither team has much in common with the teams they were on day one.
The Dodgers rotation lost Julio Urías, Dustin May, and the promise of a Walker Buehler return over the course of the season. Their current skeleton crew is led by a Kershaw who sat under 89 mph for the last four starts of the season after returning from injury, a surging rookie Bobby Miller with outstanding stuff but a short track record, and probably some combo of another young starter in Ryan Pepiot, who found his command just in time, and veteran Lynn. If the young guys perform (they look pretty good under the hood), it might be enough for a lineup that powerful, but it’s not what they had planned.
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In Arizona, the front two of Zac Gallen and Kelly have been steady, but they’ll only get to use Gallen on short rest. Third starter Brandon Pfaadt has been better since he moved on the rubber to take advantage of his sideways arsenal — a 4.22 ERA with decent peripherals — but he wasn’t great in the Wild Card round. They probably won’t want to use any of their other starters.
Other than ERA, most of the second-half numbers favor the Arizona trio, and given Kershaw’s postseason history — however you parse it — the nod probably goes to the Diamondbacks’ rotation on the strength of their steady twosome.
Paring the Diamondbacks bullpen down to their best four, and looking at September numbers, the pens might be equal. That would be surprising, but so was the team going to rookie Andrew Saalfrank and his unexpected sink in the Wild Card series — maybe Arizona has found its way to a workable November pen.
Advantage … Diamondbacks?
Why the Diamondbacks will win
The Diamondbacks did themselves a massive favor by sweeping Milwaukee instead of going the distance. That sets them up to have four of the potential five games started by their two best pitchers: Kelly and Gallen. That’s a potential leg up on a Dodgers team with a lot of young starting pitching behind ace Kershaw. The Diamondbacks are playing with house money in this series. They’ll be the heavy underdogs and have nothing to lose. It was the same situation against the Brewers. They’ve been playing meaningful games for a long time now, while the Dodgers have had the division locked up for about two months. The D-Backs are youthful, speedy and fun. If they win this series, it’s because their starting pitching kept them in games, and their offense hit in big moments like it did in Milwaukee. There will be no secrets between these division foes. Arizona is not the top dog in the NL West. But it doesn’t need to be. All that matters is these next five games. The D-Backs are set up well for shorter series. And because of that, there’s a pathway for them to advance. — Sam Blum
GO DEEPER
Diamondbacks’ journey back from darkest days make wild-card triumph a ‘special moment’
Why the Dodgers will win
For the fourth consecutive year, the Dodgers will wind up waiting on a familiar NL West foe in the NLDS. And while the Diamondbacks don’t match the level of star power or elite bullpen that the Padres did a year ago, they have their own ways of challenging this Dodgers roster. Just look at April, when Arizona ran (literally) all over the Dodgers in a series at Chase Field that raised alarm bells about the Dodgers’ ability to adjust to MLB’s new rules. The Dodgers have since adjusted (dumping Noah Syndergaard, who allowed 20 stolen bases in 12 starts, off the roster helped), but can the Dodgers continue to assert their will in this shortened series?
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They should. While the Diamondbacks could still theoretically line up Kelly and Gallen to pitch four of the five potential games, the Dodgers’ overall lineup depth should still be enough to wear down the rest of Arizona’s pitching staff. The club’s young pitching has appeared to turn a corner, as has its bullpen. Los Angeles separated itself during the regular season despite the very same questions that would plague it in a postseason series. The Dodgers will not run out a traditional pitching staff but still have enough intriguing arms to prevent runs. They also have the two best players in the series, though Carroll has certainly made a name for himself. — Fabian Ardaya
Diamondbacks must-reads
Corbin Carroll, the Diamondbacks’ young, quiet superstar, is learning how to lead
Why the Diamondbacks’ Zac Gallen, dominant and efficient, is worthy of the NL Cy Young
Beyond the slap: ‘Whatever you think you know about Tommy Pham, you don’t’
How the Orioles, D-Backs and Reds capitalized on MLB’s new rules and surprised the sport
The Diamondbacks are leading the NL West. What’s their secret? ‘Every good team has love’
Dodgers must-reads
‘It’s what we do’: How the Dodgers embraced joy (and tequila) as a winning ritual
The Dodgers clinch: How the West was won (again)
Clayton Kershaw looking to ‘prove to myself that I’m still good enough’
As he makes his return, how long will ‘The Mookie Betts trade’ linger?
Dodgers’ Bobby Miller dazzles in big-league debut: ‘Bobby knows he belongs’
(Top photo of Mookie Betts: Harry How / Getty Images; photo of Ketel Marte: John Fisher / Getty Images)
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